Short-term population forecasting of the Australian Plague Locust

The Australian plague locust (Chortoicetes terminifera) is the most damaging locust species in Australia, forming huge swarms that migrate over large areas and quickly destroy pastures, crops, and green spaces. The Australian Plague Locust Commission (APLC) is currently developing an early warning system of potential outbreak conditions for C. terminifera. The APLC relies on accurate forecasts for planning resource-intensive, remote fields surveys and providing early warning of outbreak conditions, but currently uses a model built over 20 years ago called DYMEX-Ct. This model simulates locust population dynamics using equations describing the growth, survival and migration of locusts at different life stages.

Complex locust life history and interactions between environmental factors and population processes makes predicting outbreaks challenging. The APLC aims to update DYMEX-Ct to a gridcell-based model that maps locust densities across its entire Australian range. Making accurate forecasts requires incorporation of temporal environmental data into maps to understand how locust abundance changes over time and space. CEBRA will work alongside the APLC to develop these maps by using state-of-the-art machine-learning and statistical models parameterised with extensive survey data (over 400,000 survey observations of locust abundance collected over a large area since the 1980s) and publicly available data on land use, vegetation, and weather. Beyond improvements in forecasting, this project will help inform on-the-ground management such as more efficient field survey design, and better-targeted pesticide use.

CEBRA Project Leader: James Camac