Developing a comprehensive approach to consequence estimation (‘Consequence Estimates’)
CEBRA is supporting the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry in assessing environment impacts of pests to improve our ability to measure the value of the of Australia’s biosecurity system.
Consequence estimates — strong, evidence-backed estimates of the potential impact of the establishment and spread of pests and diseases — are essential for valuing Australia’s biosecurity system. The current approach is to use whole-of-system models to estimate dollars of biosecurity risk avoided per dollar invested, which draws on the Value model developed by CEBRA. The Value model uses consequence estimates to calculate the net present value of Australia’s biosecurity system and predicts the likely impacts of 40 types of pests and diseases (functional pest groups). The functional pest group framework in the model is based on work developed almost ten years ago. Newly available knowledge and tools about the types of pests and their impacts, as well as in estimating non-market consequences, such as environmental and cultural impacts have since become available.
This project builds on and improves existing models and consequence estimates by gathering and incorporating new information. It will review the department’s current pest functional groups to assess their impacts and develop an approach to update environmental consequence estimates that the department can implement on an ongoing basis.
CEBRA Project Leaders: Tom Kompas, Christopher Baker