Project lead: Tom Kompas
The Value of Biosecurity System model simulates pest and disease arrivals, spread, and cumulative economic impacts on agricultural and environmental assets. It estimates:
- The total value of avoided damages due to biosecurity measures
- Asset-specific risk reduction across geographic regions
- Residual risk under current system settings
Previous modelling (2021) estimated benefits of nearly A$250 billion (NPV) over 30 years. However, this is an outdated figure—key components are missing:
- Updated pest damage functions
- Marine biosecurity valuation
- A full set of pre- and post-border measures
This project begins filling these gaps and builds a transparent, repeatable framework to quantify system value. Without further development, we risk underestimating biosecurity returns and missing opportunities to target investment where it delivers the greatest impact.