CEBRA’s continuing support in assessing potential impacts of pests and diseases will help improve the efficiency of the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry’s biosecurity investments.
Probability of a map pixel being infested with a tramp ant in the year 2040 with the biosecurity system turned off (left) and on (right)
Consequence estimates — strong, evidence-backed estimates of the potential impact of the establishment and spread of pests and diseases — are essential for valuing Australia’s biosecurity system. The Value model developed by CEBRA uses consequence estimates to calculate the net present value of Australia’s biosecurity system and predicts the likely impacts of 40 types of pests and diseases (functional pest groups).
In a previous project (Developing a comprehensive approach to consequence estimation), the pest list was updated by shifting from a functional group approach to a species-specific focus and by adding new pests, particularly those with significant environmental impacts. However, the estimates for pests retained from the original list have not been updated since 2014.
This project aims to provide clear, up-to-date, and scientifically rigorous estimates of the impacts of pests and diseases on agriculture. It will use the latest data to update these estimates and ensure they remain relevant and reliable.
The project will also document the information sources and processes used for these updates to guide how to maintain up-to-date estimates in the future. This will help keep Australia’s biosecurity system prepared against new and evolving threats.
CEBRA Project Leader: Christopher Baker