Journal Articles

2021 Journal Articles

Baker, CM & Bode, M (2021) Recent advances of quantitative modelling to support invasive species eradication on islands. Conservations Science and Practice 3 (2)
Bloomfield, NJ, Wei, S, Woodham, B, Wilkinson, P & Robinson, AP (2021) Automating the assessment of biofouling in images using expert agreement as a gold standard. Scientific Reports 11:2739s
Bradhurst, R, Spring, D, Stanaway, M, Milner, J & Kompas, T (2021) A generalised and scalable framework for modelling incursions, surveillance and control of plant and environmental pests. Environmental Modelling and Software 139, 105004, 1–16
Bradhurst, R, Garner, G, Hovari, M, de la Puente, M, Mintiens, K, Yadav, S, Federici, T, Kopacka, I, Stockreiter, S, Kuzmanova, I, Paunov, S, Cacinovic, V, Rubin, M, Szilágyi, J, Szepesiné Kókány, Z, Santi, A, Sordilli, M, Sighinas, L, Spiridon, M, Potocnik, M & Sumption, K (2021) Development of a transboundary model of livestock disease in Europe. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 1–20
Camac, JS, Umbers, KDL, Morgan, JW, Geange, SR, Hanea, A, Slatyer, RA, McDougall, KL, Venn, SE, Vesk, PA, Hoffmann, AA & Nicotra, AB (2021) Predicting species and community responses to global change using structured expert judgement: An Australian mountain ecosystems case study. Global Change Biology 27 (18) pp 4420–4434 doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15750
Costanza, R, Kubiszewski, I, Kompas, T & Sutton, PC (2021) A global metauniversity to lead by design to a sustainable well-being future. Frontiers in Sustainability doi.org/10.3389/frsus.2021.653721
Dharmarathne, G, Hanea, A & Robinson, AP (2021) Improving the computation of Brier scores for evaluating expert-elicited judgements. Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics 7:669546 doi.org/10.3389/fams.2021.669546
Grafton, Q, Parslow, J, Kompas, T, Glass, K & Banks, E (2021) Epidemiological modelling of the health and economic effects of COVID-19 control in Australia’s second wave. Journal of Public Health
Kapitza, S, Van Ha, P, Kompas, T, Golding, N, Cadenhead, N, Bal, P & Wintle, B (2021) Assessing biophysical and social-economic impacts of climate change on regional avian biodiversity. Scientific Reports 11, pp 1–10
Knights, K, McCarthy, MA, Camac, J & Guillera-Arroita, G (2021) Efficient effort allocation in line-transect distance sampling of high-density species: When to walk further, measure less-often and gain precision. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 12 pp 962–970
Kompas T, Grafton RQ, Che TN, Chu L & Camac J (2021) Health and economic costs of early and delayed suppression and the unmitigated spread of COVID-19: The case of Australia. PLOS ONE 16 (6): e0252400 doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252400
Peterson, K, Barnes, MD, Jeynes-Smith, C, Cowen, S, Gibson, L, Sims, C, Baker, C & Bode, M (2021) Reconstructing lost ecosystems: a risk analysis framework for planning multispecies reintroductions under severe uncertainty. Journal of Applied Ecology doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13965
Piontek, F, Drouet, L, Emmerling, J, Kompas, T, Mejean, A, Otto, C, Rising, J, Soergel, B, Taconet, N & Tavoni, M (2021) From biophysical to economic impacts of climate change: An integrated perspective. Nature Climate Change 11 pp 563–572
Trouvé, R, Oborne, L & Baker, PJ (2021) The effect of species, size, and fire intensity on tree mortality within a catastrophic bushfire complex. Ecological Applications
Trouvé, R & Robinson, AP (2021) Estimating consignment-level infestation rates from the proportion of consignment that failed border inspection: Possibilities and limitations in the presence of overdispersed data. Risk Analysis 41 (6)
Welsh, M, Turner, J, Epanchin-Niell, R, Monge, J, Soliman, T, Robinson, AP, Kean, J, Phillips, C, Stringer, L, Vereijssen, J, Liebhold, A, Kompas, T, Ormsby, M & Brockerhoff, E (2021) Approaches for estimating benefits and costs of interventions in plant biosecurity across invasion phases. Ecological Applications 31 (5) e02319 doi.org/10.1002/eap.2319
Whyte, J (2021) 'Model structures and structural identifiability: What? Why? How?' in Wood, DR, de Gier, J, Praeger CE, & Tao, T (eds) 2019–20 MATRIX annals. Springer, Cham MATRIX book series 4 pp 185–213
Whyte, JM (2021) 'Branching out into structural identifiability analysis with maple: Interactive exploration of uncontrolled linear time-invariant structures' in Corless, R Gerhard, J & Kotsireas I (eds) Maple in mathematics education and research. Springer, Cham Communications in Computer and Information Science
Zaloumis, S, Whyte, JM et al. (2021) An in silico decision-tool to guide optimisation of intravenous artesunate dosing regimens for severe falciparum malaria patients. Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy doi.org/10.1128/AAC.02346-20

2020 Journal Articles

Ahmed, S, LeMay, V, Yanchuk, A, Robinson, A, Marshall, P & Bull, G (2020) Meta-modelling to quantify yields of white spruce and hybrid spruce provenances in the Canadian boreal forest. Forests 11 pp 609
Alahmadi, A, Belet, S, Black, A, Cromer, D, Flegg, JA, House, T, Jayasundara, P, Keith, JM, McCaw, JM, Moss, R, Ross, JV, Shearer, FM, Tun, STT, Walker, J, White, L, Whyte, JM, Yan, AWC & Zarebski, AE (2020) Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges. Epidemics 32
Arndt, E, Burgman, M, Schneider, K & Robinson, A (2020) 'Working with government – innovative approaches to evidence-based policy-making' in Sutherland, WJ, Brotherton, Peter, NM, Davies, ZG, Ockendon, N, Pettorelli, N & Vickery, JA (eds) Conservation research, policy and practice. Cambridge University Press pp 2016–2229
Bai, M, Flesch, T, Trouvé, R, Coates, T, Butterly, C, Bhatta, B, Hill, J & Chen, D (2020) Gas emissions during cattle manure composting and stockpiling. Journal of Environmental Quality 49 (1)
Bai, M, Impraim, R, Coates, T, Flesch, T, Trouvé, R, vanGrinsven, H, Cao, Y, Hill, J & Chen, D (2020) Lignite effects on NH3, N2O, CO2 and CH4 emissions during composting of manure. Journal of Environmental Management 271
Firestone, SM, Hayama, Y, Lau, MSY, Yamamoto, T, Nishi, T, Bradhurst, R, Demirhan, H, Stevenson, M & Tsutsui, T (2020) Transmission network reconstruction for foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks incorporating farm-level covariates. PLOS ONE 15 (7)
French, S, Hanea, AM, Bedford, T & Nane, GF (2020) 'Introduction and overview of structured expert judgement' in Hanea, AM, Nane, GF, Bedford, T & French, S (eds) Expert judgement in risk and decision analysis. Springer
Hanea, AM, Nane, GF, Bedford, T & French, T (2020) Expert judgement in risk and decision analysis. Springer
Hanea, AM & Nane, GF (2020) 'An in-depth perspective on the classical model' in Hanea, AM, Nane, GF, Bedford, T & French, S (eds) Expert judgement in risk and decision analysis. Springer
Hemming, V, Hanea, AM, Walshe, T & Burgman, M (2020) Weighting and aggregating expert ecological judgements. Ecological Applications 20 (4)
Marcot, B & Hanea, AM (2020) What is an optimal value of k in k-fold cross-validation in discrete Bayesian network analysis? Computational Statistics
Marshall, AM, Link, TE, Robinson, AP & Abatzoglou, JT (2020) Higher snowfall intensity is associated with reduced impacts of warming upon winter snow ablation. Geophysical Research Letters 47 (4)
Nane, GF & Hanea, AM (2020) 'Building on foundations: The SEJ interview with Roger Cooke' in Hanea, AM, Nane, GF, Bedford, T & French, S (eds) Expert judgement in risk and decision analysis. Springer
Pritzkow, C, Williamson, V, Szota, C, Trouvé, R & Arndt, SK (2020) Phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation of functional traits influences intra-specific variation in hydraulic efficiency and safety. Tree Physiology 40 (2)
Roscoe, K, Hanea, AM, Jongejan, R & Vrouwenvelder, T (2020) Levee system reliability modelling: The length effect and Bayesian updating. Safety
Trouvé, R, Bunyavejchewin, S & Baker, PJ (2020) Disentangling fire intensity and species’ susceptibility to fire in a species-rich seasonal tropical forest. Journal of Ecology 108 (4)
Whyte, JM (2020) 'On Using "emerging interest" in scientific literature to inform chemical risk prioritisation' in Proceedings of the 10th International Environmental Modelling and Software Society Congress.
Wu, CH, Dodd, AJ, Hauser, CE & McCarthy, MA (2020) Reallocating budgets among ongoing and emerging conservation projects. Conservation Biology 35 (3) pp 955–966

2019 Journal Articles

Bradhurst, R, Garner, MG, East, I, Death, C, Dodd, A & Kompas, T (2019) Management strategies for vaccinated animals after an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease and the impact on return to trade. PLOS ONE
Briscoe, NJ, Elith, J, Salguero-Gómez, R, Lahoz Monfort, JJ, Camac, JS, Giljohann, KM, Holden, M, Hradsky, BA, Kearney, MR, McMahon, S, Phillips, BL, Regan, TJ, Rhodes, JR, Vesk, PA, Wintle BA, Yen, JDL & Guillera-Arroita, G (2019) Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications. Ecology Letters
Firestone SM, Hayama Y, Bradhurst R, Yamamoto T, Tsutsui T & Stevenson, MA (2019) Reconstructing foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks: a methods comparison of transmission network models. Nature Scientific Reports 9 (4809)
Grafton, R, Doyen, L, Bene, C, Borgomeo, E, Brooks, K, Chu, L, Cumming, G, Dixon, J, Dovers, S, Garrick, D, Helfgott, A, Jiang, Q, Katic, P, Kompas, T, Little, R, Matthews, N, Ringler, C, Squires, D, Steinshamn, S, Villasante, S, Wheeler, S, Williams, J & Wyrwoll, P (2019) Realising resilience for decision-making. Nature Sustainability 2, 907–913
Hanea, AM & Nane, GF (2019) Calibrating experts' probabilistic assessments for improved probabilistic predictions. Safety Science 118, 763–771
Hoffmann, AA, Rymer, PD, Bryne, M, Ruthrof, KX, Whinam, J, McGeoch, M, Bergstrom, DM, Guerin, GR, Sparrow, B, Joseph, L, Hill, SJ, Andrew, NR, Camac, JS, Bell, N, Riegler, M, Gardner, JL & Williams, SE (2019) Impacts of recent climate change on terrestrial flora and fauna: some emerging Australian examples. Austral Ecology 44 (1), 3–27
Hood, Y, Sadler, J, Poldy, J, Starkey, CS & Robinson, AP (2019) Biosecurity system reforms and the development of a risk-based surveillance and pathway analysis system for ornamental fish imported into Australia. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 167, 159–168
Johnson, S, Hick, P, Robinson, AP, Rimmer, A, Tweedie, A & Becker, J (2019) The impact of pooling samples on surveillance sensitivity for the megalocytivirus Infectious spleen and kidney necrosis virus. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
Keith, JM, Spring, D & Kompas, T (2019) Delimiting a species’s geographic range using posterior sampling and computational geometry. Scientific Reports 9(1), no. 8938
Kim, JH & Robinson, AP (2019) Interval-based hypothesis testing and its applications to economics and finance. Econometrics 7(2):1–21
Kompas, T & Van Ha, P (2019) The 'curse of dimensionality' resolved: the effects of climate change and trade barriers in large dimensional modelling. Economic Modelling 80, 103–110
Kompas, T, Chu, L, Van Ha, P & Spring, D (2019) Budgeting and portfolio allocation for biosecurity measures. The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
Lane, SE, Cannon, RM, Arthur, AD & Robinson, AP (2019) Sample size for inspection intended to manage risk within mixed consignments. Neobiota 42: 59–69
Robinson, AP (2019) Testing simulation models using frequentist statistics. in Beisbart, C & Saam, NJ (Eds.) Computer simulation validation: fundamental concepts, methodological frameworks and philosophical perspectives. Springer pp 465–496
Trouvé, R, Nitschke, CR, Andrieux, L, Willersdorf, T, Robinson, AP & Baker, PJ (2019) Competition drives the decline of a midstorey tree species. Habitat implications for an endangered marsupial. Forest Ecology and Management 447:26–34

2018 Journal Articles

Barons, MJ, Hanea, AM, Wright, SK, Baldock, KCR, Wilfert, L, Chandler, D, Dattah, S, Fannon, J, Hartfield, C, Lucas, A, Ollerton, J, Potts, SG & Carreck, NL (2018) Assessment of the response of pollinator abundance to environmental pressures using structured expert elicitation. Journal of Apicultural Research 57 (5), 593–604
Bonneau, M, Hauser, CE, Williams, NSG & Cousens, RD (2018) Optimal schedule for monitoring a plant incursion when detection and treatment success vary over time. Biological Invasions
Camac, JS, Condit, R, FitzJohn, RG, McCalman, L, Steinberg, D, Westoby, M, Wright, SJ & Falster, D (2018) Partitioning mortality into growth-dependent and growth-independent hazards across 203 tropical tree species. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 (49), 12459-12464
Christophersen, A, Deligne, NI, Hanea, A et al (2018) Bayesian network modelling and expert elicitation for probabilistic eruption forecasting: pilot study for Whakaari/White Island, New Zealand. Frontiers in Earth Science
Clarke-Errey, S, Stenekes, N, Kancans, R, Woodland, C, & Robinson, AP (2018) Undelivered risk: a counter-factual analysis of the biosecurity risk avoided by inspecting international mail articles. NeoBiota 40:73–86
Decrouez, G, and Robinson, AP (2018). Bias-Corrected Estimation in Continuous Sampling Plans. Risk Analysis
Gill, SD, Lane, SE, Sheridan, M, Ellis, E, Smith, D, Stella, J (2018) Why do 'Fast Track' patients stay more than four hours in the Emergency Department? An investigation of factors that predict length of stay. Emergency Medicine Australasia 30 (5) 641–647
Hanea, AM & Nane, GF (2018) The Asymptotic Distribution of the Determinant of a Random Correlation Matrix. Statistica Neerlandica Vol. 72, nr. 1
Hanea, AM, Burgman, MA & Hemming, V (2018) IDEA for Uncertainty Quantification. In Dias, LC, Morton, A, Quigley, J (Eds) Elicitation: The science and art of structuring judgement, Springer, New York (Chapter 5)
Hanea, AM, Nane, GF, Cooke, RM & Wielicki, BA (2018) Bayesian Networks for identifying incorrect probabilistic intuitions in a climate trend uncertainty quantification context. Journal of Risk Research 21 (9) 1146–1161
Hanea, AM, McBride, M, Burgman, M & Wintle, B (2018) The value of performance weights and discussion in aggregated expert judgements. Risk Analysis
Hemming, V, Burgman MA, Hanea MA, McBride MF & Wintle BC (2018) A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 9:169–180
Hemming, V, Walshe, T, Hanea, A, Fidler, F & Burgman, M (2018) Eliciting improved quantitative judgements using the IDEA protocol: a case study in natural resource management. PLOS ONE
Hollings, T, Burgman, M, van Andel, M, Gilbert, M, Robinson, T & Robinson, AP (2018) How do you find the green sheep? A critical review of the use of remotely sensed imagery to detect and count animals. Methods in Ecology and Evolution
Hoshino, E, Pacoe, S, Hutton, T, Kompas, T & Yamazaki, S (2018) Estimating maximum economic yield in multispecies fisheries: a review. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 58 (2) 261–276
Kompas, T, Van Ha, P & Nhu Che, T (2018) The effects of climate change on GDP by country and the global gains from complying with the Paris Climate Accord. Earth’s Future
Kompas, T & Chu, L (2018) MEY for a short-lived species: a neural network approach. Fisheries Research
Lane, S, Hollings, T, Hayes, KR, McEnnulty, FR, Green, M & Robinson, AP (2018) Risk factors for fouling biomass: evidence from small vessels in Australia. Biofouling 34 (9), 1032–1045
Malishev M, Bull CM & Kearney MR (2018) An individual-based model of ectotherm movement integrating metabolic and microclimactic constraints. Methods in Ecology and Evolution
Mariyono, J, Kuntariningsih, A & Kompas, T (2018) Pesticide use in Indonesian vegetable farming and its determinants. Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal
Spring, DA, Croft, L, Bond, NR, Cunningham, SC, Mac Nally, R and Kompas, T (2018) Institutional Impediments to Conservation of Freshwater Dependent Ecosystems. Science of the Total Environment
van Andel, M, Hollings, T, Bradhurst, R, Robinson, AP, Burgman, M, Gates, C, Bingham, P & Carpenter, T (2018) Does size matter to models? Exploring the effect of herd size on outputs of a herd-level disease spread simulator. Frontiers in Veterinary Science
Werner, C, Hanea, AM & Morales-Napoles, O (2018) Eliciting Multivariate Uncertainty from Experts: Considerations and Approaches along the Expert Judgement Process. In Dias LC, Morton A & Quigley J (Eds), Elicitation: The science and art of structuring judgement, Springer, New York (Chapter 8)

2017 Journal Articles

Camac, JS, Williams, RJ, Wahren, C, Hoffman, AA & Vesk, PA (2017) Climatic warming strengthens a positive feedback between alpine shrubs and fire. Global Change Biology DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13614
Capes, H, Maillardet, RJ, Baker, TG, Weston, CJ, McGuire, D, Dumbrell, IG, and Robinson, AP (2017) The Allometric Quarter-Power Scaling Model and Its Applicability to Grand Fir and Eucalyptus Trees. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics DOI: 10.1007/s13253-017-0292-7
Clarke, S, Hollings, T, Liu, N, Hood, G & Robinson, A (2017) Biosecurity risk factors presented by intrnational vessels: a statistical analysis. Biological Invasions June 2017 DOI: 10.1007/s10530-017-1486-1
Dodd, AJ, Ainsworth, N, Hauser, CE, Burgman, MA & McCarthy, MA (2017) Prioritizing plant eradication targets by re-framing the project prioritization protocol (PPP) for use in biosecurity applications. Biological Invasions March 2017 Volume 19 (3), pp 859–873.DOI 10.1007/s10530-016-1335-7
Elith, J (2017) Chapter 5: Predicting distributions of invasive species, in Robinson, A, Walshe, TR, Burgman, MA, Nunn, M (Eds) Invasive Species: Risk Assessment and Management. Cambridge University Press
Elith, J & Franklin, J (2017) Species distribution modelling. Reference Module in Life Sciences Elsevier
Fraser, F, Soanes, K, Jones, SA, Jones, CS & Malishev, M (2017) The value of virtual conferencing for ecology and conservation. Conservation Biology 31 (3) pg 540–543
Grafton, RQ, Kompas, T and Long, NV (2017) A Brave New World? Kantian-Nashian Interaction and the Dynamics of Global Climate Change Mitigation. European Economic Review http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.04.002
Hanea, AM, Nane, GF, Cooke, RM (2017) Integrating disparate information sources for equilibrium climate sensitivity with NPBNs International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, Vienna, Austria (refereed conference paper)
Hauser, CE & Rout, TM (2017) Optimising resource allocation, in Robinson, A, Walshe, TR, Burgman, MA & Nunn, M (Eds) Invasive Species: Risk Assessment and Management. Cambridge University Press
Hauser, CE, Rout, TM, McCarthy, MA & Moore, JL (2017) Adaptive management improves decisions about where to search for invasive species. Biological Conservation 212: 249-255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2017.04.009
Hester, SM & Cacho, OJ (2017) The contribution of community surveillance to invasive species management. Biological Invasions 19(3): 737–748
Hester, SM, Hauser, CE & Kean, JM Tools for designing and evaluating post-border surveillance systems. Chapter 2 in Robinson, AP, Walshe, T, Burgman, MA & Nunn, M (Eds) Methods for invasive species risk analysis and management Cambridge University Press
Hollings, T, Robinson, A, van Andel, M, Jewell, C & Burgman, M Species distribution models: A comparison of statistical approaches for livestock and disease epidemics. PLOS One 12
Hradsky, BA, Penman, D, Ababei, A, Anca, A, Ritchie, EG, York, A & Di Stefano, J (2017) Bayesian networks elucidate interactions between fire and other drivers of terrestrial fauna distributions. Ecosphere 8
Jäger, WS, Christie, EK, Hanea, AM, den Heijer, C & Spencer, T (2017) A Bayesian network approach for coastal risk analysis and decision making Coastal Engineering
Kompas, T, Nhu Che, T, Van Ha, P & Chu, L (2017) Cost–Benefit Analysis for Biosecurity Decisions. Robinson, AP, Walshe, T, Burgman, MA & Nunn, M (Eds) Methods for invasive species risk analysis and management Cambridge University Press
Kompas, T, Van Ha, P, Nguyen, HTM, East, I, Roche, S, Garner, G (2017) Optimal Surveillance against Foot-and-Mouth Disease: The Case of Bulk Milk Testing in Australia. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
Landers, S, Hely, A, Harrison, B, Maister, N, Hely, R, Lane, SE ... Page, R. S. (2017) Protocol for a single-centre, parallel-arm, randomised controlled superiority trial evaluating the effects of transcatheter arterial embolisation of abnormal knee neovasculature on pain, function and quality of life in people with knee osteoarthritis. BMJ Open 7(5), e014266. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2016-014266
Lane, SE, Arthur, AD, Aston, C, Zhao, S & Robinson, AP (2017) When Does Poor Governance Presage Biosecurity Risk? Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society of Risk Analysis
Mata, L, Garrad, GE, Kutt, A, Wintle, BC, Chee, YE, Backstrom, A, Bainbridge, B, Urlus, J, Brown, G, Tolsma, A, Yen, A, New, T and Bekessy, S (2017) Eliciting and integrating expert knowledge to assess the viability of the critically endangered golden sun-moth Synemon plana. Austral Ecology Volume 42, Issue 3 297-308
McNeill, MR, Phillips, CB, Robinson, AR, Aalders, L, Richards, N, Young, S, Dowsett, C, James, T & Bell, N (2017) Defining the biosecurity risk posed by transported soil: Effects of storage time and environmental exposure on survival of soil biota. NeoBiota 32: 65-88. https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.32.9784
Morán-Ordóñez, A, Lahoz-Monfort, JJ, Elith, J & Wintle, BA (2017) Evaluating 318 continental-scale species distribution models over a 60-year prediction horizon: what factors influence the reliability of predictions? Global Ecology and Biogeography Issue online 8 Feb 2017 doi:10.1111/geb.12545.
Nguyen, HTM, Kompas, T, Breusch, T & Ward, MB (2017) Language, mixed communes and infrastructure: Sources of inequality and ethnic minorities in Vietnam.World Development
Owen, R (2017) Role of Human Action in the Spread of Honey Bee (Hymenoptera: Apidae) Pathogens. Journal of Economic Entomology doi.org/10.1093/jee/tox075
Roberts, DW, Bahn, V, Ciuti, S, Boyce, MS, Elith, J, Guillera-Arroita, G, Hauenstein, S, Lahoz-Monfort, JJ, Schroder, B, Thuiller, W, Warton, D, Wintle, BA, Hartig, F & Dormann, CF (2017) Cross-validation strategies for data with temporal, spatial, hierarchical, or phylogenetic structure. Ecography DOI 10.1111/ecog.02881
Robinson, AP & Turner, KF (2017) Hypothesis Testing for Topological Data Analysis. Journal of Applied and Computational Topology
Robinson, A, Walshe, T, Burgman, M & Nunn, M (2017) Invasive Species: Risk Assessment and Management. Cambrige University Press
Rossiter, A & Hester, SM (2017) Designing biosecurity inspection regimes to account for stakeholder incentives: an inspection game approach. Economic Record DOI: 10.1111/1475-4932.12315.
Sperfeld, E, Wagner, N, Halvorson, HM, Malishev, M & Raubenheimer, D (2017) Bridging ecological stoichiometry and nutritional geometry with homeostasis concepts and integrative models of organism nutrition. Functional Ecology 31: 286–296
Trouvé, R, Nitschke, CR, Robinson, AP & Baker, PJ (2017) Estimating the self-thinning line from mortality data. Forest Ecology and Management 402
van Andel, M, Jewell, C, McKenzie, J, Hollings, T, Robinson, A, Burgman, M, Bingham, P & Carpenter, T Predicting farm-level animal populations using environmental and socioeconomic variables. Preventive veterinary medicine
Van Ha, P, Kompas, T, Nguyen, HTM & Long, CH (2017) Building a better trade model to determine local effects: A regional and intertemporal GTAP model. Economic Modelling
Vino, T, Singh, GR, Davison, B, Campbell, PT, Lydeamore, MJ, Robinson, AP, McVernon, J, Tong, SYC, and Geard, N (2017) Indigenous Australian household structure: a simple data collection tool and implications for close contact transmission of communicable diseases. PeerJ
Werner, C, Bedford, T, Cooke, RM, Hanea, AM & Morales-Napoles, O (2017) Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modeling: A systematic literature review and future research directions. European Journal of Operational Research

2016 Journal Articles

Chee, Y. E., Wilkinson, L., Nicholson, A. E., Quintana-Ascencio, P. F., Fauth, J. E., Hall, D., Ponzio, K. J. and Rumpff, L. (2016) Modelling spatial and temporal changes with GIS and Spatial and Dynamic Bayesian Networks. Environmental Modelling & Software, 82, pp. 108-120.
Cherry,H., Constantine, A., Primrose ,K., Hauser , C., Tasker, K. (2016) "It takes a village: detection dogs, partnerships and volunteers aid hawkweed eradication in mainland Australia." In Proceedings of the 20th Australasian Weeds Conference, eds R. Randall, S. Lloyd and C. Borger. 201. pp.164-170
Constantine, A., Hauser C. E., Primrose, K., Smith, N. (2016) Hawkweed (Hieracium spp.) surveillance: development of a targeted and robust plan for the Victorian Alps Plant Protection Quarterly Vol.31(1), pp. 28-32.
Decrouez, G, and Robinson, A.P. (2016). Measuring the inspectorate: point and interval estimates for performance indicators. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics. 21: 382 - 401
East, I.J., Martin, P.A.J., Langstaff, R.M., Iglesias, R.M., Sergeant, E.S.G. and Garner, M.G. (2016) Assessing the delay to detection and the size of the outbreak at the time of detection of incursions of foot and mouth disease in Australia. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 123: 1 - 11
Elith, J. (2016) Box 2.3: Species Distribution Models. Detecting and responding to alien plant incursions (ed. by J.R. Wilson, F.D. Panetta and C. Lindgren), p. 266. Cambridge University Press, UK.
Elith, J. (2016) Chapter 6: Predicting distributions of invasive species. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/1312.0851. Risk-based decisions for biological threats (ed. by T.R. Walshe, A. Robinson, M. Nunn and M.A. Burgman). Cambridge University Press.
Garner, M.G., East, I.J., Stevenson, M.A., Sanson, R.L., Rawdon, T.G., Bradhurst, R.A., Roche, S.E., Van Ha, P. and Kompas, T., (2016). Early decision indicators for foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in non-endemic countries. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 3.109, doi:10.3389/fvets.2016.00109
Garner, M. G., East, I. J., Kompas, T., Van Ha, P., Roche, S. E., and Nguyen, H. T. M (2016), ‘Comparison of Alternatives to Passive Surveillance to Detect Foot and Mouth Disease Incursions in Victoria, Australia’, Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 128, 78–86.
Garrard, G. E., Fidler, F., Wintle, B. C., Chee, Y. E. and Bekessy, S. A. (2016) Beyond advocacy: making space for conservation scientists in public debate. Conservation Letters, 9(3), pp. 208-212.
Hanea, A.M., McBride, M.F., Burgman, M.A. & Wintle, B.C. (2016), Classical Meets Modern in the IDEA Protocol for Structured Expert Judgement, Journal of Risk Research, Aug 2016: 1-17
Hanea, A.M., McBride, M.F, Burgman, M.A., Wintle, B.C, Fidler, F., Flander, L., Twardy, C.R, Manning, B. & Mascaro, S. (2016), Investigate Discuss Estimate Aggregate for structured expert judgement, International Journal of Forecasting
Hauser, C. E., Weiss, J., Guillera-Arroita, G., McCarthy, M. A., Giljohann, K. M., Moore J. L. (2016). Designing detection experiments: three more case studies. In Proceedings of the 20th Australasian Weeds Conference. pp.171-178
Hollings, T., M. Jones, N. Mooney, and H. I. McCallum. (2016). Disease-induced decline of an apex predator drives invasive dominated states and threatens biodiversity. Ecology. 97(2): 394-405
Jordan, H., Dunt, D., Hollingsworth, B., Firestone, S.M. and Burgman, M. (2016). Costing the morbidity and mortality consequences of zoonoses using health adjusted life years. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases Online Sept 2016
Kompas, T., Chu, L. and Nguyen, T. M. (2016 ) A practical optimal surveillance policy for Invasive Weeds: An application to Hawkweed in Australia. Ecological Economics 130: 156-165
Kompas, T., Nhu Che, T. (2016), ‘A Structural and Stochastic Optimal Model for Projections of LNG Imports and Exports in Asia-Pacific’, Heliyon, 2, e00108.
Kompas, T., (2016). Comment 2 on ‘Natural resource management’by Pannell, Doole and Cheung. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 60(4), pp.670-671.
Morán-Ordóñez, A., Lahoz-Monfort, J.J., Elith, J. & Wintle, B.A. (2016) Evaluating 318 continental-scale species distribution models over a 60-year prediction horizon: what factors influence the reliability of predictions? Global Ecology and Biogeography doi:10.1111/geb.12545.
Parker, T. H., Forstmeier, W., Koricheva, J., Fidler, F., Hadfield, J., Chee, Y. E., Kelly, C., Gurevitch, J. and Nakagawa, S. (2016) Transparency in ecology and evolution: real problems, real solutions. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2016.07.002
Read, C.F., Elith, J. & Vesk, P.A. (2016) Testing a model of biological soil crust succession. Journal of Vegetation Science, 27, 176-186.
Roberts, D.W., Bahn, V., Ciuti, S., Boyce, M.S., Elith, J., Guillera-Arroita, G., Hauenstein, S., Lahoz-Monfort, J.J., Schroder, B., Thuiller, W., Warton, D., Wintle, B.A., Hartig, F. & Dormann, C.F. (2016) Cross-validation strategies for data with temporal, spatial, hierarchical, or phylogenetic structure. Ecography. DOI 10.1111/ecog.02881
Robinson, A.P., McLarin, M., and Moss, I. (2016). A simple way to incorporate uncertainty and risk into forest harvest scheduling. Forest Ecology and Management, 359:11–18.
Rose, L., Heard, G. W., Chee, Y. E. and Wintle, B. (2016) Cost-effective conservation of an endangered frog under uncertainty. Conservation Biology, 30(2), pp. 350-361.
Spring, D., Croft, L., & Kompas, T.(2016). Look before you treat: increasing the cost effectiveness of eradication programs with aerial surveillance. Biological Invasions, Vol 19 (2) pp 1-15.
Snäll, T., Lehtomäki, J., Arponen, A., Elith, J. & Moilanen, A. (2016) Green Infrastructure Design Based on Spatial Conservation Prioritization and Modeling of Biodiversity Features and Ecosystem Services. Environmental Management, 57, 251-256.
Sperfeld, E., Halvorson, H.M., Malishev, M., Clissold, F. & Wagner, N.D. (2016) Woodstoich III: Integrating tools of Nutritional Geometry and Ecological Stoichiometry to advance element budgeting and the prediction of consumer-driven nutrient recycling. Oikos 125: 1539-1553
Van Ha, P., and Kompas, T. (2016) Solving intertemporal CGE models in parallel using a Singly Bordered Block Diagonal ordering technique. Economic Modelling
Van Ha, P., Kompas, T., Nguyen, H. T. M., & Long, C. H. (2016). Building a better trade model to determine local effects: A regional and intertemporal GTAP model. Economic Modelling. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.10.015

2015 Journal Articles

Adams-Hosking, C., McBride, M.F., Baxter, G., Burgman, M., de Villiers, D., Kavanagh, R., Lawler, I., Lunney, D., Melzer, A., Menkhorst, P., Molsher, R., Moore, B.D., Phalen, D., Rhodes, J.R., Todd, C., Whisson, D., McAlpine, C.A. 2015. Use of expert knowledge to elicit population trends for the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus). Diversity and Distributions 21, 1-14
Akter, Sonia., Kompas, Tom., Ward, Michael B. (2015) Application of portfolio theory to asset-based biosecurity decision analysis. Ecological Economics 117 73-85
Ashdown, M.L, Robinson, A.P., Yatomi-Clarke, S.L., Ashdown, M.L., Allison, A., Abbott, D, Markovic, S.N, Coventry, B.J. (2015). Chemotherapy for Late-Stage Cancer Patients: Meta-Analysis of Complete Response Rates. F1000Research, 4:232 (doi: 10.12688/f1000research.6760.1)
Bisono, I.N., and Robinson, A.P. (2015). Spatial Bayesian Model for Maximum Temperature. International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics 53 (6), 137–144.
Burgman, M.A., (2015) Trusting judgements: how to get the best out of experts. Cambridge University Press.
Clarke, Sandra, J. and Jones, Stuart, A. (2015) Bayesian estimation for diagnostic testing of Biosecurity Risk Material in the absence of a Gold Standard when test data are incomplete. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics 20 (3), 389-408
Dodd, A. J., Burgman, M. A., McCarthy, M. A. and Ainsworth, N.(2015). The changing patterns of plant naturalizations in Australia. Diversity and Distributions Vol 21 (9) 1038 - 1050
Dodd, A.J., Ainsworth, N., Burgman, M.A. and McCarthy, M.A. (2015) Plant extirpation at the site scale: implications for eradication programmes. Diversity and Distributions Vol 21 (2) 151 - 162
Dodd, A. J., McCarthy, M. A., Ainsworth, N., & Burgman, M. A. (2015). Identifying hotspots of alien plant naturalisation in Australia: approaches and predictions. Biological Invasions, 1-15.
Fithian, W., Elith, J., Hastie, T. & Keith, D. (2015) Bias Correction in Species Distribution Models: Pooling Survey and Collection Data for Multiple Species. Methods in Ecology and Evolution Vol 6 (4) 424-438
Guillera-Arroita, G., Lahoz-Monfort, J.J., Elith, J., Gordon, A., Kujala, H., Lentini, P.E., McCarthy, M.A., Tingley, R. & Wintle, B.A. (2015) Is my species distribution model fit for purpose? Matching data and models to applications. Global Ecology and Biogeography. Vol 24 (3) 276-292
Hanea, A.M., Morales-Napoles, O. & Ababei, D. (2015) Non-Parametric Bayesian Networks: Improving Theory and Reviewing Applications. Reliability Engineering & System Safety Vol 144 265-284
Hester, S., Sergeant, E., Robinson, A.P., and Schultz, G. 2015. Animal, Vegetable, or . . . ? A case study in using animal-health monitoring tools to solve a plant-health surveillance problem. In: Biosecurity Surveillance: Quantitative Approaches, Eds: Frith Jarrad, Samantha Low-Choy, Kerrie Mengersen. CABI, pp 313–333.
Hollings, T., H. McCallum, K. Kreger, N. Mooney, and M. Jones. 2015. Relaxation of risk-sensitive behaviour of prey following disease-induced decline of an apex predator, the Tasmanian devil. Proceedings of the Royal Society B.
Jaskierniak, D., Benyon, R., Kuczera, G., and Robinson, A.P. (2015). A new method for measuring stand sapwood area in forests. Ecohydrology. Vol 8 (3) 504-517
Jordan, H., Dunt, D., Hollingsworth, B., Firestone, S.M. and Burgman, M. (2015). Costing the morbidity and mortality consequences of zoonoses using health adjusted life years. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases DOI:10.1111/tbed.12305.
Keith, D.A., Rodríguez J.P., Brooks T.M., Burgman M.A., Barrow E.G., Bland L., Comer P.J., Franklin J., Link J., McCarthy M.A., Miller R.M., Murray N.J., Nel J., Nicholson E., Oliviera-Miranda M.A., Regan T.J., Rodríguez-Clark K.M., Rouget M. and Spalding M.D. (2015). The IUCN red list of ecosystems: Motivations, challenges and applications. Conservation Letters Vol 8 (3) 214-226
Kompas, T., Nguyen, H T M. and Ha, P V. (2015) Food Biosecurity: Livestock production and towards a world free of Foot-and-Mouth disease. Food Security April 2015, 291-302
Lyon, A., Wintle, B. and Burgman, M. (2015). Collective wisdom: methods of confidence interval aggregation, Journal of Business Research 68, 1759 - 1767
Martin, P.A.J., Langstaff, R.M., Iglesias, R.M., East, I.J., Sergeant, E.S.G., and Garner, M.G. (2015) Assessing the efficacy of general surveillance for detection of incursions of livestock diseases in Australia. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 121 (215 - 230).
Matthews, M. and Kompas, T. (2015). Coping with nasty surprises: Improving risk management in the public sector using simplified Bayesian Methods. Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies 2 (3) 452 - 456
Mittinty, M., Whittle, P., Burgman, M. and Mengersen, K. (2015). The role of surveillance in evaluating and comparing international quarantine systems. Pp. 137-150. In, Jarrad, F., Low-Choy, S. and Mengersen, K. (eds) Biosecurity surveillance: Quantitative approaches. CAB International, Wallingford, UK
Robinson, A.P., Chisholm, M., Mudford, R., Maillardet, R. 2015. Ad hoc solutions to estimating pathway non compliance rates using imperfect and incomplete data. In: Biosecurity Surveillance: Quantitative Approaches, Eds: Frith Jarrad, Samantha Low-Choy, Kerrie Mengersen. CABI, pp 167– 180
Spring, D. and Kompas, T., (2015). Managing risk and increasing the robustness of invasive species eradication programs. Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies 2 (3) 485-493
Sutherland, W.J. and Burgman, M.A. (2015) Use experts wisely. Nature 526, 317-318

2014 Journal Articles

Burgman, M.A. & Regan, H.M. (2014) Information-gap theory fills a gap in ecological applications. Ecological Applications 24, 227-228
Burgman, M.A., Regan, H.M., Maguire, L.A., Colyvan, M., Justus, J., Martin, T.G. and Rothley K. (2014) Voting systems for environmental decisions. Conservation Biology Vol 28 (2) 322-332
Cook, C.N., Inayatullah, S., Burgman, M.A., Sutherland, W.J. and Wintle, B.A. (2014) Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making. Trends in Ecology and Evolution.
Cox-Witton, K., Reiss, A., Woods, R., Grillo, V., Baker, R.T., Blyde, D.J., Boardman, W., Cutter, S., Lacasse, C., McCracken, H., Pyne, M., Smith, I., Vitali, S., Vogelnest, L., Wedd, D., Phillips, M., Bunn, C. and Post, L. (2014) Emerging Infectious Diseases in Free-Ranging Wildlike-Australian Zoo Based Wildlife Hospitals Contribute to National Surveillance. Plos One 9 (5)
Elith, J. and Burgman, M.A. (2014) Reply to Kriticos et al. NeoBiota, 23, 95-99.
Guillera-Arroita, G., Lahoz-Monfort, J.J. & Elith, J. (2014) Maxent is not a presence-absence method: a comment on Thibaud et al. . Methods in Ecology and Evolution. Vol 5 (11) 1192-1197
Jones, O.D., Maillardet, R.A., and Robinson, A.P. (2014). An Introduction to Scientific Programming and Simulation, Using R, 2nd Edition Chapman & Hall/CRC.
Keith, D.A., Mahony, M., Hines, H., Elith, J., Regan, T.J., Baumgartner, J.B., Hunter, D., Heard, G.W., Mitchell, N.J., Penman, T., Parris, K.M., Tracey, C., Scheele, B., Simpson, C.C., Tingley, R., West, M. and Akcakaya, H.R. (2014 ). Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN Red List criteria. Conservation Biology, 28, 810-819
Keith, D.A., Elith, J. and Simpson, C.C. (2014) Predicting distribution changes of a mire ecosystem under future climates. Diversity and Distributions, 20, 440-454
Merow, C., Smith, M.J., Edwards Jr, T.C., Guisan, A., McMahon, S.M., Normand, S., Thuiller, W., Wüest, R., Zimmermann, N.E. & Elith, J. (2014) What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models? . Ecography. Vol 37 (12) 1267-1281
Mills, M., Nicol, S., Wells, J.A., Lahoz-Monfort, J.J., Wintle, B., Bode, M., Wardrop, M.,Walshe, T., Probert, W.J.W., Runge, M.C., Possingham, H.P. & McDonald Madden, E. (2014) Minimizing the cost of keeping options open for conservation in a changing climate. Conservation Biology
Panetta, F. D. & Cacho, O. J. (2014) Designing weed containment strategies: An approach based on feasibilities of eradication and containment Diversity and Distributions
Read, C.F., Duncan, D.H., Vesk, P.A. & Elith, J. (2014) Biocrust morphogroups provide an effective and rapid assessment tool for drylands. Journal of Applied Ecology. Vol 51 (6) 1740-1749
Runge M.C and Walshe T. (2014) Identifying objectives and alternative actions to frame a decision problem. G.R. Guntenspergen, ed. Application of Threshold Concepts in Natural Resource Decision Making. Springer pp. 29-44.
Shtilerman, E., Thompson, C.J., Stone, L., Bode, M. & Burgman, M.A. (2014) A novel method for estimating the number of species within a region. Proceedings of the Royal Society Series B.

2013 Journal Articles

Addison P.F.E., Rumpff L., Bau S.S., Carey J.M., Chee Y.E., Jarrad F.C., McBride M.F. & Burgman M.A. (2013)Practical solutions for making models indispensable in conservation decision-making. Diversity and Distributions 19, 490–502.
Burgman, M. A. & Yemshanov, D. (2013) Risks, decisions and biological conservation Diversity and Distributions 19, 485-489
Burgman, M.A., McCarthy, M.A., Robinson, A., Hester, S.M., McBride, M.F., Elith, J. & Panetta, F.D. (2013) Improving decisions for invasive species management: reformulation and extensions of the Panetta-Lawes eradication graph. Diversity and Distributions 19, 603–607.
Decrouez, G. & Robinson, A. R. (2013) Time-series models for border inspection data Risk Analysis 33, 2142-2153
Dormann, C. F., Elith, J., Bacher, S., Buchmann, C., Carl, G., Carre, G., Diekotter, T., Garcia Marquez, J., Gruber, B., Lafourcade, B., Leitao, P. J., Munkemuller, T., McClean, C., Osborne, P., Reineking, B., Schroder, B., Skidmore, A. K., Zurell, D. & Lautenbach, S. (2013) Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance Ecography 36, 27-46
Drescher, M., Perera, A. H., Johnson, C. J., Buse, L. J., Drew, C. A. & Burgman, M.A. (2013) Towards rigourous use of expert knowledge in ecological research Ecosphere 4, 1-26
Elith, J., Simpson, J., Hirsch, M. & Burgman, M. A. (2013) Taxonomic uncertainty and decision making for biosecurity: spatial models for myrtle/ guava rust Australasian Plant Pathology 42, 43-51
Estevez, R. A., Walshe, T & Burgman, M. A. (2013) Capturing social impacts for decision-making:a Multicriteria Decision Analysis perspective Diversity and Distributions 19, 608-616
Guisan, A., Tingley, R., Baumgartner, J. B., Naujokaitis-Lewis, I., Sutcliffe, P. R., Tulloch, A. I. T., Regan, T. J., Brotons, L., McDonald-Madden, E., Mantyka-Pringle, C., Martin, T. G., Rhodes, J. R., Maggini, R., Setterfield, S. A., Elith, J., Schwartz, M. W., Wintle, B. A., Broennimann, O., Austin, M., Ferrier, S., Kearney, M. R., Possingham, H. P. & Buckley, Y. M. (2013) Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions Ecology Letters 16, 1424-1435
Hester, S. M., Cacho, O. J., Panetta, F. D. & Hauser, C. E. (2013) Economic aspects of weed risk managementDiversity and Distributions 19, 580-589
Holliday, J. L., Jones, S. A., Simpson, J. A., Glen, M., Edwards, J., Robinson, A. & Burgman, M. A. (2013) A novel spore collection device for sampling exposure pathways: a case study of 'Puccinia psidii' Plant Disease 97, 828-834
Karavarsamis, N., Robinson, A.P., Hepworth, G., Hamilton, A.J. & Heard, G.W. (2013) Comparison on four bootstrap-based interval estimators of species occupancy and detection probabilities. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics 55(3): 235-252
Lyon, A., Grossel, G., Burgman, M. A. & Nunn, M. (2013) Using internet intelligence to manage biosecurity risks: a case study for aquatic animal health Diversity and Distributions 19, 640-650
Lyon, A., Mooney, A. & Grossel, G. (2013) Using AquaticHealth.net to detect emerging trends in aquatic animal health. Agriculture 3(2): 299-309
Mitchell, M., Gude, J., Anderson, N., Ramsey, K., Thompson, M., Edwards, V., Gower, C., Cochrane, J., Irwin, E & Walshe, T. (2013) Using structured decision making to manage disease risk for Montana wildlife Wildlife Society Bulletin 37, 107-114
Phillips, S.J. & Elith, J. (2013) On estimating probability of presence from use-availability or presence-background data. Ecology 94: 1409-1419
Potts, J.M., Cox, M.J., Barkley, P., Christian, R., Telford, G. & Burgman, M.A. (2013) Model-based search strategies for plant diseases: a case study using citus canker (Xanthomonas citri). Diversity and Distributions 19, 590-602
Rout, T. & Walshe, T. (2013) Accounting for time preference in management decisions: an application to invasive species. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis 20, 197-211
Sinden, J.A., Downey, P., Cacho, O. & Hester, S. (2013) Cost effectiveness in site selection to protect native plant communities from the weed, bitou bush, in Australia. Journal of Environmental Management 128, 1071-1080
Sutherland, W.J., Spiegelhalter, D. & Burgman, M.A. (2013) Twenty tips for interpreting scientific claims. Nature (Comments) 503, 335-337
Thompson, C.J., Lee, T.E., Stone, L., McCarthy, M.A., & Burgman, M.A . (2013) Inferring extinction risks from sighting records. Journal of Theoretical Biology

2012 Journal Articles

Akcakaya, H.R., Ferson, S., Burgman, M.A., Keith, D.A., Mace, G.M. & Todd, C.R. (2012) Commentary: IUCN classifications under uncertainty. Environmental Modelling and Software 38, 119-121.
Beeden, R., Maynard, J.A., Marshall P.A., Heron, S., Willis, B.L. (2012) A framework for responding to coral disease outbreaks that facilitates adaptive management. Environmental Management, 49: 1-13.
Bekessy, S.A., White, M., Gordon, A., et al. (2012) Transparent planning for biodiversity and development in the urban fringe. Landscape and Urban Planning 108 (2-4): 140-149
Burgman, M., Lowell, K., Woodgate, P., Jones, S., Richards, G. & Addison, P. (2012) An endpoint hierarchy and process control charts for ecological monitoring. In, David Lindenmayer and Phil Gibbins (eds). Biodiversity monitoring in Australia. Chapter 8, Pp. 71-78. CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne.
Burgman, M., Roberts, B., Sansford, C., Griffin, R. & Mengersen, K. (2012) Pest risk analysis. In. Paul de Barro and Gordon Gordh (eds) Plant Biosecurity Handbook. Chapter 2. Springer, New York.
Burgman, M.A., Franklin, J., Hayes, K.R., Hosack, G.R., Peters, G.W. & Sisson, S.A. (2012) Modeling extreme risks in ecology. Risk Analysis
Chee, YE & Elith, J. (2012) Spatial data for modelling and management of freshwater ecosystems. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 26 2123-2140
Chisholm, R. A. & Wintle, B. A. (2012) Choosing ecosystem service investments that are robust to uncertainty across multiple parameters. Ecological Applications 22 (2): 697-704
Crase, B., Liedloff, A.C. & Wintle, B. (2012) A new method for dealing with residual spatial autocorrelation in species distribution models. Ecography 35 (10): 879-888
Decrouez, G., & Robinson, A. (2012) Confidence intervals for the weighted sum of two independent binomial proportions. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics. 54 (3) 281-299
Flander, L., Dixon, W., McBride, M. & Burgman, M. (2012) Facilitated expert judgement of environmental risks: acquiring and analyzing imprecise data. International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management 16: 199-212
Fordham, D.A., Akçakaya, H.R., Araújo, M.B., Elith, J., Keith, D., Pearson, R., Auld, T.D., Mellin, C., Morgan, J.W., Regan, T.J., Tozer, M., Watts, M.J., White, M., Wintle, B., Yates, C. & Brook, B.W. (2012) Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming? Global Change Biology, 18, 1357-1371
Gordon, A., Wintle, B. A., Bekessy, S. A., et al. (2012) The use of dynamic landscape metapopulation models for forest management: a case study of the red-backed salamander. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 42 (6): 1091-11096
Hester S.M. & Cacho, O.J. (2012) Optimising search strategies in managing biological invasions: a simulation approach. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 18: 181-199.
Hester, S.M., Hauser, C.E. & Kean, J.M. (2012) Tools for designing and evaluating post-border surveillance systems, in Richardson, D., Walshe, T., Robinson, A. and Burgman, M. (eds), Methods for invasive species risk analysis and management Cambridge University Press
Hicks, J.S., Burgman, M.A., Marewski, J.N., Fidler, F. & Gigerenzer, G. (2012) Decision making in a human population living sustainably. Conservation Biology 26, 760-768
Hill, M.P., Hoffmann, A.A., Macfadyen, S. Umina, P.A. & Elith, J. (2012) Understanding niche shifts: using current and historical data to model the invasive redlegged earth mite, Halotydeus destructor. Diversity and Distributions, 18: 191-203.
Jarrad, F.C., Walshe, T., Chee, YE & Burgman, M.A. (2012) A test of biotic interactions among two alpine plant species in Australia. Austral Ecology 37, 90-96
Kujala, H., Burgman, M.A. & Moilanen, A. (2012) Treatment of uncertainty in conservation under climate change.Conservation Letters.
Leites, L., Rehfeldt, G.E., Robinson, A.P., Crookston, N.L. & Jaquish, B. (2012) Possibilities and limitations of using historic provenance tests to infer forest species growth responses to climate change. Natural Resource Modeling, 25(3): 409–433.
Leites, L., Robinson, A.P., Rehfeldt, G.E., Marshall, J.D. & Crookston, N.L. (2012) Height-growth response to climatic changes differ among populations of Douglas-fir: a novel analysis of historic data. Ecological Applications, 22: 154-165.
Leung, B., Roura-Pascual, N., Bacher, S., Heikkila, J., Brotons, L., Burgman, M.A., Dehnen-Schmutz, K., Essl, F., Hulme, P.E., Richardson, D.M., Sol, D. & Montserrat, V. (2012) Teasing apart alien species risk assessments: a framework for best practices. Ecology Letters.
Lindenmayer, D.B., Gibbons, P., Bourke, M., Burgman, M., Dickman, C.R., Ferrier, S., Fitsimons, J., Freudenberger, D., Garnett, S.T., Groves, C., Hobbs, R.J., Kingsford, R.T., Krebs, C., Legge, S., Lowe, A.J., McLean, R., Montambault, J., Possingham, H., Radford, J., Robinson, D., Smallbone, L., Thimas, D., Varcoe, T., Vardon, M., Wardle, G., Woinarski, J. & Zerger, A. (2012) Improving biodiversity monitoring. Austral Ecology 37, 285-294
Liu, S., Walshe, T., Long, G. & Cook, D. (2012) Evaluation of Potential Responses to Invasive Non-Native Species with Structured Decision Making. Conservation Biology, 26: 539 -546.
Lyon, A., Nunn, M., Grossel, G. & Burgman, M. (2012) Comparison of Web–Based Biosecurity Intelligence Systems: BioCaster, EpiSPIDER, and HealthMap. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 59(3): 223-32
Martin, T.G., Burgman, M.A., Fidler, F., Kuhnert, P.M., Low-Choy, S., McBride, M. & Mengersen, K. (2012) Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science. Conservation Biology, 26: 29-38.
McBride, M., Fidler, F. & Burgman, M.A. (2012) Evaluating the accuracy and calibration of expert predictions under uncertainty: predicting the outcomes of ecological research. Diversity and Distributions.
McBride, M., Garnett, S.T., Szabo, J.K., Burbidge, A.H., Butchart, S.H.M., Christidis, L., Dutson, G., Ford, H.A., Loyn, R.H., Watson, D.M. & Burgman, M.A. (2012) Structured elicitation of expert judgements for threatened species assessment: a case study on a continental scale using email. Methods in Ecology and Evolution.
McBride, M.F. & Burgman, M.A. (2012) What is expert knowledge, how is such knowledge gathered, and how do we use it to address questions in landscape ecology? In, Ajith Perera, Ashton Drew, and Chris Johnson (eds). Expert Knowledge and its Applications in Landscape Ecology. Chapter 2. Springer, New York. Pg. 11-38
Miller, B.P., Walshe, T., Enright, N.J. & Lamont, B.B. (2012) Grasstree stem analysis reveals insufficient data for inference of fire history. Journal of the Royal Society of Western Australia, 95: 95–102.
Morán-Ordóñez, A., Suárez-Seoane, S., Elith, J., Calvo, L. & de Luis, E. (2012) Use of raw remote sensing data to improve predictions of species distributions. A case study on heath and shrub communities in the Cantabrian Mountains (NW Spain). Diversity and Distributions. 18,588-602
Nicholson, A.E., Chee, Y.E. & Quintana-Ascencio, P. (2012) A state-transition DBN for management of willows in an American Heritage river catchment. 9th Bayesian Modelling Applications Workshop at the Conference of Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 15-17 August, Catalina Island, California, USA.
Pouzols, F.M., Burgman, M.A. & Moilanen, A. (2012) Methods for allocation of habitat management, maintenance, restoration and offsetting, when conservation actions have uncertain consequences. Biological Conservation 153, 41–50.
Sharafi, M.S., White, M. & Burgman, M. (2012) Implementing comprehensiveness, adequacy and representativeness criteria (CAR) to indicate gaps in an existing reserve system: A case study from Victoria, Australia.Ecological Indicators, 18: 342-352.
Sharafi, S. M., White, M., Moilanen, A. & Burgman, M. (2012) Integrating environmental gap analysis with conservation prioritization: A case study from Victoria, Australia. Journal of Environmental Management 112: 240-251.
Solow, A., Smith, W., Burgman, M., Rout, T., Wintle, B. & Roberts, D. (2012) Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory-Billed Woodpecker. Conservation Biology 26, 180-184.
Thompson, C.J., Cannon, R.M. & Burgman, M.A. (2012) Surveillance for threatened and invasive species when uncertainty is severe. Diversity and Distributions, 18: 410-416.
Vink D., Cogger N., Walshe T., Muellner P., Martinez-Aviles M., Stringer L., & Burgman M. (2012) Whats the risk of disease? Software tools to support learning concepts of risk perception and assessment. Proceedings of the ASCILITE Conference, Wellington 2012
Wintle, B. C., Fidler, F., Vesk, P. A. & Moore, J. L. (2012) Improving visual estimation through active feedback. Methods in Ecology and Evolution
Wintle, B., Mascaro, M., Fidler, F., McBride, M., Burgman, M., Flander, L., Saw, G., Twardy, C., Lyon, A. & Manning, B. (2012) The intelligence game: assessing Delphi groups and structured question formats. In Corkill, J., Coole, M. and Valli, C. (eds). Proceedings of the 5th Australian Security and Intelligence Conference. Pp. 14-26. Security Research Institiute, Edith Cowan University
Wintle, B.A., Walshe, T.V., Parris, K.M. & McCarthy, M.A. (2012) Designing occupancy surveys and interpreting non-detection when observations are imperfect. Diversity and Distributions, 18: 417 - 424.
Zurrell, D., Elith, J. & Schröder, B. (2012) Why range predictions differ: on the importance of understanding niche and data dimensions. Diversity and Distributions.
Zurrell, D., Elith, J. & Schröder, B. (2012) Predicting to new environments: tools for visualizing model behaviour and impacts on mapped distributions. Diversity and Distributions. 18, 628-634

2011 Journal Articles

Anthony, K.R.N., Maynard, J.A., Diaz-Pulido, G., Marshall, P.A., Mumby, P.J. & Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (2011) Ocean acidification and warming will lower coral reef resilience. Global Change Biology, 17: 1798-1808
Baxter, P.W.J. & Possingham, H.P. (2011) Optimising search strategies for invasive pests: learn before you leap.Journal of Applied Ecology, 48: 86-95.
Burgman, M. A., Carr, A. Godden, L. Gregory, R., McBride, M., Flander, L. & Maguire, L. (2011) Redefining expertise and improving ecological judgement. Conservation Letters, 4: 81-87.
Burgman, M.A. (2011) Remedies for a scientific disease. Bulletin of the British Ecological Society, 42, 34-37.
Burgman, M.A., McBride, M., Ashton, R., Speirs-Bridge, A., Flander, L., Wintle, B., Fidler, F., Rumpff, L. & Twardy, C. (2011) Expert status and performance. PLoS ONE
Cacho, O.J. & Hester, S.M. (2011) Deriving efficient frontiers for effort allocation in the management of invasive species. The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 55: 72-89
Chadès, I.B., Martin, T.G., Nicols, S., Burgman, M.A., Possingham, H.P. & Buckley, Y.M. (2011) General rules for managing and surveying networks of pests, diseases and endangered species. PNAS, 108: 8323-8328
Elith, J., Phillips, S.J., Hastie, T., Dudík, M., Chee, Y.E. & Yates, C.J. (2011) A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Diversity and Distributions, 17: 43-57
Eyles, A., Robinson, A.P., Smith,D., Carnegie, A., Smith I., Stone, C., & Mohammed, C. (2011) Quantifying stem growth loss at the tree-level in a Pinus radiata plantation to repeated attack by the aphid, Essigella californica. Forest Ecology and Management, 261: 120-127.
Giljohann, K. M., Hauser, C. E., Williams, N. S. G. & Moore, J. L. (2011) Optimizing invasive species control across space: willow invasion management in the Australian Alps. Journal of Applied Ecology, 48:1286-1294.
Gilmour, J., Beilin, R. & Sysak, T. (2011) Biosecurity risk and peri-urban landholders - using a stakeholder consultative approach to build a risk communication strategy. Journal of Risk Research, 14: 281-295
Jaskierniak, D., Lane, P., Robinson, A., & Lucieer, A. (2011) Extracting LiDAR indices to characterise multilayered forest structure using mixture distribution functions. Remote Sensing of Environment, 115: 575-587.
Lane, S., & Robinson, A.P. (2011) An alternative objective function for fitting regression trees to functional response variables. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 55: 2557-2567.
Lazaridis, D., Verbesselt, J., & Robinson, A.P. (2011) Penalized regression techniques for prediction: a case-study for predicting tree mortality using remotely sensed vegetation indices. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 41: 24-34.
Leathwick, J., Snelder, T.H., Chadderton, L., Julian, K., Elith, J. & Ferrier, S. (2011) Use of generalised dissimilarity modelling to improve the biological discrimination of river and stream classifications. Freshwater Biology, 56: 21-38.
Maynard, J.A., Anthony, K.R.N., Harvell, C.D., Burgman, M.A., Beeden, R., Sweatman, H., Heron, S.F., Lamb, J.B. & Willis, B.L. (2011) Predicting outbreaks of a climate-driven coral disease in the Great Barrier Reef. Coral Reefs, 30: 485-495
Moore, J.L, Hauser, C.E, Bear, J.L., Williams, N.S.G. & McCarthy, M. A. (2011) Estimating detection-effort curves for plants using search trials. Ecological Applications, 21: 601-607
Moore, J.L. , Runge, M.C., Webber, B.L. & Wilson, J.R.U. (2011) Contain or eradicate? Optimising the management of Australian acacia invasions in the face of uncertainty. Diversity and Distributions, 17: 1047-1059.
Panetta, F.D., Cacho, O.J., Hester, S. & Sims-Chilton, N. (2011) Estimating and influencing the duration of weed eradication programmes. Journal of Applied Ecology, 48(4): 980-988.
Phillips, S.J. & Elith, J. (2011) Logistic methods for resource selection functions and presence-only species distribution models. Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pp. 1384-1389. San Francisco, USA.
Probert W.J.M.,Hauser C.E., McDonald-Madden E., Runge M.C., Baxter P.W.J. & Possingham H.P. (2011) Managing and learning with multiple models: objectives and optimization algorithms. Biological Conservation 144: 1237-1245.
Read, C.F., Duncan, D.H., Vesk, P.A. & Elith, J. (2011) Surprisingly fast recovery of biological soil crusts following stock livestock removal in southern Australia. Journal of Vegetation Science, 22: 905–916.
Robinson, A., Burgman, M.A. & Cannon, R. (2011) Allocating surveillance resources to reduce ecological invasions: maximizing detections and information about the threat. Ecological Applications, 21: 1410-1417
Robinson, A.P. & Hamann, J. D. (2011) Forest Analytics with R. Springer
Robinson, A.P., Lane, S. & Therien, G. (2011) Fitting Forestry Models Using Generalized Additive Models: A Taper Model Example. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 41: 1909-1916.
Wilson, J.R.U., Gairifo, C., Gibson, M.R., Arianoutsou, M., Bakar, B.B., Baret, S., Celesti-Grapow, L., Dufour-Dror, J.M., Kueffer, C., Kull, C.A., Hoffmann, J.H., Impson, F.A.C., Loope, L.L., Marchante, E., Marchante, H., Moore, J.L., Murphy, D., Pauchard, A., Rinaudo, A., Tassin, J., Witt, A., Zenni, R.D. & Richardson, D.M. (2011) Risk assessment, eradication, containment, and biological control: global efforts to manage Australian acacias before they become widespread invaders. Diversity and Distributions, 17: 1030-1046.

2010 Journal Articles

Burgman, M.A., Wintle, B.A., Thompson, C.A., Moilanen, A., Runge, M.C. & Ben-Haim, Y. (2010) Reconciling uncertain costs and benefits in Bayes nets for invasive species management. Risk Analysis, 30: 277-284
Cacho, O.J., Spring, D., Hester, S.M. & Mac Nally, R. (2010) Allocating surveillance effort in the management of invasive species: a spatially-explicit model. Environmental Modelling and Software, 25: 444-454.
Caponecchia, C. (2010) Strategies to improve the communication of probability information in risk analyses.International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 12: 380-395
Chee, YE & Wintle, B.A. (2010) Linking modelling, monitoring and management: an integrated approach to controlling overabundant wildlife. Journal of Applied Ecology 47, 1169-1178.
Colyvan, M., Cox, D. & Steele, K. (2010) Modelling the moral dimension of decisions. Noûs, 44 (3): 503-529.
Elith, J. & Kearney, M. (2010) The art of modelling range-shifting species. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 1: 330-342
Fuentes, M.M.P.B., Maynard. J.A., Guinea, M., Bell, I.P., Werdell, P.J. & Hamann, M. (2010) Proxy indicators of sand temperature help project impacts of global warming on sea turtles in northern Australia. Endangered Species Research, 9:33-40.
Hester S.M., Brooks, S.J., Cacho, O.J. & Panetta, F.D. (2010) Applying a simulation model to the management of an infestation of Miconia (Miconia calvescens) in the wet tropics of Australia. Weed Research, 50: 269-279.
Lane, S., Robinson, A. P. & Baker, T. (2010) The functional regression tree method for diameter distribution modelling. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 40(9): 1870-1877.
Maynard, J.A., Anthony, K.R.N., Afatta, S., Dahl-Tacconi, N. & Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (2010) Making a model meaningful to coral reef managers in a developing nation: a case study of overfishing and rock anchoring in Indonesia.Conservation Biology, 24: 1316-1326
Maynard, J.A., Marshall, P.A., Johnson, J.E. & Harman, S. (2010) Building resilience into practical conservation: identifying local management responses to global climate change in the southern Great Barrier Reef. Coral Reefs, 29: 381-391
McCarthy, M.A., Thompson, C.J., Hauser, C., Burgman, M.A., Possingham, H.P., Moir, M.L., Tiensin, T. & Gilbert, M. (2010) Resource allocation for efficient environmental management. Ecology Letters, 13: 1280-1289.
McDonald-Madden E., Probert W.J.M., Hauser C.E., Runge M.C., Possingham H.P., Jones M.E., Moore, J.L., Rout T.M., Vesk P.A. & Wintle B.A. (2010) Active adaptive conservation of threatened species in the face of uncertainty.Ecological Applications, 20: 1476-1489.
Moore, J.L., Rout, T.M., Hauser, C.E., Moro, D., Jones, M., Wilcox, C. & Possingham, H.P. (2010) Protecting islands from pest invasion: optimal allocation of biosecurity resources between quarantine and surveillance. Biological Conservation, 143: 1068-1078.
Phillips, S.J. & Elith, J. (2010) POC-plots: calibrating species distribution models with presence-only data. Ecology, 91: 2476-2484.
Rezvani, M, Cousens, R.D., Zaefarian, F., Karim-Mojeny, H., & Robinson, A.P. (2010) Shapes of ballistic seed dispersal distributions: a comparison of Oxalis corniculata L. with a theoretical model. Weed Research, 50: 631-637.
Rout, T., Heinze, D & McCarthy, M. A. (2010) Optimal allocation of conservation resources to species that may be extinct. Conservation Biology, 24: 1111-1118.
Speirs-Bridge, A., Fidler, F., McBride, M., Flander, L., Cumming, G. & Burgman, M. (2010) Reducing overconfidence in the interval judgements of experts. Risk Analysis 30, 512-523.
Steele, K. (2010) What are the minimum requirements of rational choice? Arguments from the sequential-decision setting. Theory and Decision, 68: 463-486
Thompson, C.J. & Burgman M.A. (2010) Gearing investments with uncertainty. The Journal of Risk Finance, 11: 107-110
Van Wilgen, N., J.R.U. Wilson, et al. (2010) Alien invaders and reptile traders: what drives the live animal trade in South Africa? Animal Conservation, 13 suppl 1: 24-32.
Vesk, P.A., Davidson, A. & Chee, Y.E. (2010) Spatial distribution and prediction of seed production by Eucalyptus microcarpa in a fragmented Landscape. Austral Ecology 35, 60-71.
Walshe, T.V. & Burgman, M.A. (2010) A framework for assessing and managing risks posed by emerging diseases.Risk Analysis, 30: 236-249
Webb, J. A., Stewardson, M. J., Chee, Y. E., Schreiber, E. S. G., Sharpe, A. K. & Jensz, M. C. (2010) Negotiating the turbulent boundary: the challenges of building a science-management collaboration for landscape-scale monitoring of environmental flows. Marine and Freshwater Research 61, 798-807.
Wintle, B.A., Runge, M.C., & Bekessy, S.A. (2010) Allocating monitoring effort in the face of unknown unknowns.Ecology Letters, 13: 1325–1337
Yates, C., A. McNeill, et al. (2010) Assessing the impacts of climate change and land transformation on Banksia in the South West Australian Floristic Region. Diversity and Distributions, 16: 187-201.

2009 Journal Articles

Anthony, K.R.N, Hoogenboom, M., Grottoli, A., Middlebrook, R. & Maynard, J.A. (2009) Energetics approach to predicting coral mortality risk from bleaching. Functional Ecology, 23: 539-550
Elith, J. & Leathwick, J.R. (2009) Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics, 40: 677-697.
Elith, J. & Graham, C. (2009) Do they? How do they? WHY do they differ? -- on finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models. Ecography, 32: 66-77.
Gorrod E.J. & Keith D.A. (2009) Observer variation in field assessments of vegetation condition: Implications for biodiversity conservation. Ecological Management and Restoration, 10: 31-40.
Hall, P.G. & Robinson, A.P. (2009) Reducing variability of crossvalidation for smoothing-parameter choice.Biometrika, 96: 175-186.
Hauser, C. (2009) Where and how much? A spreadsheet that allocates surveillance effort for a weed. Plant Protection Quarterly, 24(3): 94-97.
Hauser, C.E. & McCarthy, M.A. (2009) Streamlining ‘search and destroy’: cost-effective surveillance for invasive species management. Ecology Letters, 12: 683-692.
Hester S. & Sinden, J. (2009) Economic evaluation of the NSW Bitou Bush Threat Abatement Plan Hughes, N.K., Burley, A.L., King, S.A. and Downey, P.O. (eds), Monitoring Manual for bitou bush control and native plant recovery, Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water, Sydney, pp101-102.
Jones, O.D., Maillardet, R.A. & Robinson, A.P. (2009) An Introduction to Scientific Programming and Simulation, Using R. Chapman & Hall/CRC.
Jones, S., Lacey, P. & Walshe, T. (2009) A dynamic hydrological Monte Carlo simulation model to inform decision-making at Lake Toolibin, Western Australia. Journal of Environmental Management, 90: 1761-1769.
Maynard J.A. & Done T.J. (2009) Further bouts of bleaching and errant shore-divers worsen recovery rates at Million Dollar Point and the SS President Coolidge, Vanuatu. Coral Reefs, 24: 975
Maynard, J.A., Johnson, J.E., Marshall, P.A., Goby, G. & Spillman, C. (2009) A strategic framework for responding to coral bleaching events in a changing climate. Environmental Management, 44: 1-11
Morton, S.R., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Lindenmayer, D.B., Harriss-Olson, M., Hughes, L., McCulloch, M.T., McIntyre, S., Nix, H.A., Prober, S.M., Saunders, D.A., Andersen, A.N., Burgman, M.A., Lefroy, E.C., Lonsdale, W.M., Lowe, I., McMichael, A.J., Parslow, J.S., Steffen, W., Williams, J.E. & Woinarski, J.C.Z. (2009) The big ecological questions inhibiting effective environmental management in Australia. Austral Ecology, 34: 1-9.
Phillips, S.J., Dudik, M., Elith, J., Graham, C., Lehmann, A., Leathwick, J. & Ferrier, S. (2009) Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models: implications for background and pseudo-absence data. Ecological Applications, 19(1): 181-197.
Rout T.M. (2009) Declaring eradication of invasive species: a review of methods for transparent decision-making.Plant Protection Quarterly, 24(3): 92-93.
Rout T.M., Thompson C.J. & McCarthy M.A. (2009) Robust decisions for declaring eradication of invasive species.Journal of Applied Ecology, 46: 782-786.
Rout, T.M., Salomon, Y. & McCarthy, M. A. (2009) Using sighting records to declare eradication of an invasive species. Journal of Applied Ecology, 46: 110-117.
Shepherd, S.A., Watson, J.E., Womersley, H.B.S. & Carey, J.M. (2009) Long-term changes in macroalgal assemblages after increased sedimentation and turbidity in Western Port, Victoria, Australia. Botanica Marina, 52: 195-206.
Steele, K., Carmel, Y., Cross, J. & Wilcox, C. (2009) Uses and misuses of Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in environmental decision-making. Risk Analysis, 29(1):26-33.
Verbesselt, J., Robinson, A.P., Stone, C. & Culvenor, D. (2009) Forecasting tree mortality using change metrics derived from MODIS satellite data. Forest Ecology and Management, 258: 1166-1173.
Ward, G., Hastie, T., Barry, S.C., Elith, J. & Leathwick, J.R. (2009) Presence-only data and the EM algorithm.Biometrics, 65: 554-563.

2008 Journal Articles

Baxter, P.W.J., Sabo J.L., Wilcox C., McCarthy, M.A. & Possingham, H.P. (2008) Cost-effective suppression and eradication of invasive predators. Conservation Biology, 22: 89-98.
Cacho, O.J., Wise, R., Hester, S. & Sinden, J. (2008) Bioeconomic modeling for control of weeds in natural environments. Ecological Economics, 65: 559-568.
Carey, J. & Burgman, M. (2008) Linguistic uncertainty in qualitative risk analysis and how to minimize it. Strategies for Risk Communication: Evolution, Evidence, Experience. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1128: 13-17.
Chadès, I., McDonald-Madden, E., McCarthy, M.A., Wintle, B., Linkie, M., & Possingham, H.P. (2008) When to stop managing or surveying cryptic threatened species. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105: 13936-13940.
Colyvan, M. (2008) Is probability the only coherent approach to uncertainty? Risk Analysis, 28: 645–652.
Elith, J., Leathwick, J.R. & Hastie, T. (2008) A working guide to boosted regression trees. Journal of Animal Ecology, 77: 802-813.
Franklin, J., Sisson, S.A., Burgman, M.A. & Martin, J.A. (2008) Evaluating extreme risks in invasion ecology: learning from banking compliance. Diversity and Distributions, 14: 581-591.
Garrard, G.E., Bekessy, S.A., McCarthy, M.A., & Wintle, B.A. (2008) When have we looked hard enough? A novel method for setting minimum survey effort protocols for flora surveys. Austral Ecology, 33: 986-998.
Graham, C.H., Elith, J., Hijmans, R.J., Guisan, A., Peterson, A.T., & Loiselle, B.A. (2008) The influence of spatial errors in species occurrence data used in distribution models. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45(1): 239-247.
Hauser, C.E. & Possingham, H.P. (2008) Experimental or precautionary? Adaptive management over a range of time horizons. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45: 72-81.
Hosack, G.R., Hayes, K.R. & Dambacher, J.M. (2008) Assessing model structure uncertainty through an analysis of system feedback and Bayesian networks. Ecological Applications, 18: 1070-1082.
Leathwick, J.R., Elith, J., Chadderton, L., Rowe, D., & Hastie, T. (2008) Dispersal, disturbance, and the contrasting biogeographies of New Zealand's diadromous and non-diadromous fish species. Journal of Biogeography, 35: 1481–1497.
Lindenmayer, D., Hobbs, R.J., Montague-Drake, R., Alexandra, J., Bennett, A., Burgman, M., Cale, P., Clahoun, A., Cramer, V., Cullen, P., Driscoll, D., Fahrig, L., Fischer, J., Franklin, J., Haila, Y., Hunter, M., Gibbons, P., Lake. S., Luck, G., MacGregor, C., McIntyre, S., McNally, R., Manning, A., Miller, J., Mooney, H., Noss, R., Possingham, H. P., Saunders, D., Schmiegelow, F., Scott, M., Simberloff, D., Sisk, T., Tabor, G., Walker, B., Wiens, J., Woinarski, J. & Zavaleta, E. (2008) A checklist for ecological management of landscapes for conservation. Ecology Letters, 11:78-91.
Maynard, J.A., Anthony, K.R.N., Marshall, P.A. & Masiri, I. (2008) Major bleaching events lead to increased thermal tolerance in corals. Marine Biology, 155: 173-182
McCarthy, M.A., Thompson, C.J. & Garnett, S.T. (2008) Optimal investment in conservation of species. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45: 1428-1435.
McDonald-Madden, E., Baxter, P.W.J. & Possingham, H.P. (2008) Making robust decisions for conservation with restricted money and knowledge. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45: 1630-1638.
Moore, A.L., Hauser, C.E. & McCarthy, M.A. (2008) How we value the future affects our desire to learn. Ecological Applications, 18: 1061-1069.
Robinson, A.P. & Hamann, J.D. (2008) Correcting for spatial autocorrelation in sequential sampling. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45: 1221-1227.
Sinden, J., Downey, P., Hester, S. & Cacho, O. (2008) Economic evaluation of the management of bitou bush (Chrysanthemoides monilifera subsp. rotundata (DC.) T.Norl.) to conserve native plant communitites in New South Wales.Plant Protection Quarterly, 23: 34-36.
Thompson, C.J. & McCarthy M.A. (2008) Alternative measures to value at risk. Journal of Risk Finance 9: 81-88.
Walshe, T. & Massenbauer, T. (2008) Decision-making under climatic uncertainty: a case study involving an Australian Ramsar-listed wetland. Ecological Management and Restoration, 9: 202-208.

2007 Journal Articles

Burgman, M., Elith, J., Gorrod, E. & Wintle, B. (2007) Tools for managing individual plant species in dynamic landscapes. Managing and designing landscapes for conservation. Blackwell, Malden, Massachusetts. (eds) D.B. Lindenmayer and R. J. Hobbs. Pp. 330-342.
Burgman, M.A., Keith, D. A., Hopper, S. D., Widyatmoko, D. & Drill, C. (2007) Threat syndromes and conservation of the Australian flora. Biological Conservation 134, 73-82.
Carey, J. M., Beilin, R., Boxshall, A., Burgman, M. A. & Flander, L. (2007) Risk-based approaches to deal with uncertainty in a data-poor system: stakeholder involvement in hazard identification for Marine National Parks and Marine Sanctuaries in Victoria, Australia. Risk Analysis, 27: 271-281. (Article received 'Best Paper Award 2007 Risk Analysis Ecological' from The Society for Risk Analysis)
Elith, J. & Leathwick, J. (2007) Predicting species distributions from museum and herbarium records using multi response models fitted with multivariate adaptive regression splines. Diversity and Distributions, 13: 265-275.
Ferrier, S., Manion, G., Elith, J. & Richardson, K. (2007) Using generalised dissimilarity modelling to analyse and predict patterns of beta-diversity in regional biodiversity assessment. Diversity and Distributions, 13: 252-264.
Guisan, A., Graham, C.H., Elith, J., Huettmann, F. & NCEAS Species Distribution Modelling Group (2007) Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size: insights from a multi-models experiment across five continents. Diversity and Distributions, 13: 332-340.
Guisan, A., Zimmermann, N.E., Elith, J., Graham, C.H., Phillips, S. & Peterson, A.T. (2007) What matters for predicting spatial distributions of trees: techniques, data, or species' characteristics? Ecological Monographs, 77(4): 615-630.
Hayes, K.R., Regan, H. M. & Burgman, M. A. (2007) Introduction to the concepts and methods of uncertainty analysis. Environmental risk assessment of genetically modified organisms, Volume 3: Methodologies for transgenic fish. Eds, Kapuscinski, A.R., Hayes, K.R., Li, S. and Dana, G. Pp 188-208. CABI Publishing, Oxfordshire, UK.
Miller, B.P.. Walshe, T., Enright, N.J. & Lamont, B.B. (2007) Error in the inference of fire history from grasstrees.Austral Ecology, 32: 908-916.
Steele, K., Regan, H. M., Colyvan, M. & Burgman, M. A. (2007) Right decisions or happy decision-makers? Social Epistemology, 21: 349-368.
Walshe, T.V., Wintle, B.A., Fidler, F. & Burgman, M.A.Use of confidence intervals to demonstrate performance against forest management standards. Forest Ecology and Management, 247: 237-245.

2006 Journal Articles

Hart, B.T., Burgman, M., Grace, M., Pollino, P., Thomas, C. & Webb, A. (2006) Risk-based approaches to managing contaminants in catchments. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 12: 66-73.
Keith, D.A. & Gorrod, E.J. (2006) The meanings of vegetation condition. Ecological Management and Restoration, 7 (Supplement 1): S7-S9.
Moilanen, A., Wintle, B.A., Elith, J. & Burgman, M. (2006) Uncertainty analysis for regional-scale reserve selection.Conservation Biology, 20: 1688-1697.
Ray, N. & Burgman, M. A. (2006) Subjective uncertainties in habitat suitability maps. Ecological Modelling, 195: 172-186.
Wintle, B. & Bardos, D. (2006) Modeling species-habitat relationships with spatially auto corrected observation data. Ecological Applications, 16: 1945-1958.